Thursday, January 11, 2024

Australian Open: Seedings and Tournament Winners

Between 1990 and 2023, using data from Jeff Sackmann's site, the top seed has won the tournament 15 times out of 34 (44%). The second seed has won 7/34 (20.5%), so less than half the top seed winning percentage. After that, it really drops off: 2/34 for the third seed, 3/34 for the fourth seed. The highest seed to win during that period was Federer, seeded 17th, in 2017. Curiously, players seeded 5,7,9,11,12,13,14,15 have not won the tournament since 1990. Most of these are in the top half of the draw.

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Tennis: how frequently do number 1 seeds win the tournament?

Back writing after many years, has it really been 10 years?

I have been reading articles about seeding in tennis and how they are meant to protect top seeds so they can meet in the later rounds, and keep tournaments interesting for fans. It made me wonder: how frequently do outcomes reflect the seeding in a tournament? A first pass at answering this is the subject of this post: how frequently do top seeds win tournaments?

We have a remarkable database available to answer such question due to Jeff Sackman. Using this data, I analyzed ATP matches between 2000 and 2023. First, the raw results.

TournamentsLosses of #1SL in R128L in R64L in R32L in R16L in QFL in SFL in F
All Matches15211106217170269262219167
A level1218899 0141232225182119
Masters2081500132629262333
Slams95572438111415
The numbers are more interpretable in percentages:
TournamentsLosses of S1R128R64R32R16QFSFF
All152173%0.18%1.54%15.37%24.32%23.69%19.80%15.10%
A level121874%0.00%0.00%15.68%25.81%25.03%20.24%13.24%
Masters20872%0.00%8.67%17.33%19.33%17.33%15.33%22.00%
Slams9560%3.51%7.02%5.26%14.04%19.30%24.56%26.32%

Saturday, May 25, 2013

April 4: Combs and Cowlicks

Today's tidbit is about something in mathematics called the "Hairy  Ball Theorem."  No, it's not what you are thinking about, but yes, it  does apply to what you are thinking about.

April 4 is the birthday of the mathematician Hopf, who is known for a  result called the Poincare-Hopf Theorem, an example of which is the  hairy ball theorem.  It says that if you have a hairy ball (like a  really fuzzy tennis ball) and you try to comb it flat, you will always  leave a cowlick or tuft of hair at one end; you cannot have all the  hairs lay flat.

April 11: Boring?

On April 11, 1905, Albert Einstein published his special
theory of relativity.  In 1814, Napolean was exiled to Elba.  In 1888,
one of the great orchestras of the world, the Concertgebouw in
Amsterdam, was established.

Now here is the interesting bit: by searching for news events, it was
claimed that April 11, 1954 was the most boring day of the 20th
century.  A team of scientists at Cambridge University scoured through
300 million news stories to find the day with the least number of
newsworthy events.

May 6: Soaring above the wing

May 6 is an interesting date in history, lots of stuff happened:
--It was the last day  of the second world war (the documents ending the war were signed on May 7)
--The Hindenberg exploded in 1937
--Roger Bannister ran a mile under 4 minutes
--The Eiffel Tower was first opened to the public.  Gustave Eiffel's company designed and built the tower.  Eiffel was also involved in building the Statue of Liberty.  He built many bridges all over the world, and was involved in an early attempt to build the Panama Canal.  That effort failed, and after that, he "quit engineering" and devoted himself to aerodynamics. Now comes the cool part: he built a wind tunnel in 1909 and made a big discovery: that lift (produced by an airfoil/airplane wing) was not caused by an increase of pressure under the wing but instead was due to a reduction of pressure above the wing.  For this, he was awarded the James Langley medal by the Smithsonian in 1913.

Sunday, March 3, 2013

March 3: A Monumental Novella

Today is the anniversary of the first performance (Paris, 1875) of the opera Carmen, by George Bizet.  Though it is easily one of the most popular opera’s performed today, it was not successful at its launch.  Bizet died in June that year at age 36.  Just before he died, he had agreed to have it performed in Vienna, and the performance there, also in 1875, was a huge success.  This led to continuing performances and its eventual fame. 
 
The opera was based on a short novel by Prosper Merimee.  The story is about a young woman who seduces a soldier; the soldier deserts the military, but she scorns him in favor of a bullfighter, after which he kills her.  It was written as an opera comique (where dialog is spoken) but is now played as a grand opera (dialog is sung).   You can read an English translation of the novel at
 
Prosper was an archaeologist and short story writer.  Prosper apparently learned of the story of Carmen from the Countess of Montijo (Spain), whose daughter married Napolean III and became Empress Eugenie. He also discovered the amazing tapestries of The Lady and the Unicorn; these are shown hanging in the Gryffindor Common Room in the Harry Potter movies. You can see pictures of the tapestries at http://www.musee-moyenage.fr/ang/pages/page_id18368_u1l2.htm.  
 
He wrote several other novels. One is called Mateo Falcone, which was also made into an opera. It is short story set in Corsica, a translation is available at http://www.classicshorts.com/stories/mfalcone.html The movie The Golden Coach, starring Anna Magnani (Academy Award winner in The Rose Tattoo) is also based on one of his stores; the film was directed by Jean Renoir, son of the famous painter. Another enjoyable story is Colomba, also set in Corsica, available at http://www.gutenberg.org/files/2708/2708-h/2708-h.htm
 
Merimee was the person appointed as France’s inspector general of historical monuments, and the French list of national monuments is named after him.

Friday, January 18, 2013

January 18: Give me a word, another word

January 18 is the birthday of Peter Roget, the creator of Roget’s Thesaurus.   The word thesaurus comes from Latin and Greek words for treasure.  A thesaurus is not a dictionary since it does not give the meaning of a word, just synonyms or words with a similar meaning.  The Historical Thesaurus of the English Dictionary is the largest thesaurus, and has over 900,000 words, about twice the size of Roget's.  His original version had about 15000 words, and it was expanded by his son and grandson, and continues to have words added.   The Karpeles Manuscript Library has the original manuscript; you can see an excerpt and find out more about the history of Roget's Thesaurus at http://www.rain.org/~karpeles/rogfrm.html  If you click on the link, you will find an interesting quote from Peter Pan. 
 
One of the earliest thesaurus’ was compiled by Philo of Byblos.  The word “philo” derives from the Greek word for love.  Byblos was a Phoenician town.  It became the Greek word for papyrus because it was exported through Byblos.  The word Bible derives from this.  Philo derives from the Greek word for love, hence the meaning of bibliophile.  Phyllo, as in dough, is not related to philo but comes from the Greek word for leaf.
 
Other's named Philo: the person who created the first fully functional electronic TV set was named Philo Farnsworth. In the movie “Every Which Way But Loose,” Clint Eastwood 's character is named Philo Beddoe. 

Saturday, December 29, 2012

December 28: Give us the nice bright colors


On December 28, 1895 the Lumiere Brothers held the first public movie screening in the basement of a café in Paris. It was the birth of the cinema. Their father ran a photography shop in Lyon. The story goes that their father saw Edison’s Kinestoscope in Paris (where you had to look into a peephole to see the picture) and suggested to his sons that they could improve this by moving the “image out of the box.” They did, and in 1895, the first movie show was held.
The first showing was of 10 movies, each about 40 seconds in length. You can see all of them at the Lumiere Institute’s web site: http://www.institut-lumiere.org/english/frames_lum.html The first was Workers Leaving the Lumiere Factory; look at the guy with the handkerchief about 33 seconds in: what is he doing?. The second is really funny, named the “The Vaulting.” These films are in black and white.
 
The Lumiere brothers also invented the Autochrome, a new process for creating color photographs. This was a huge improvement over previous methods, and was the primary method used between 1907 and the 1930’s. The Albert Kahn Museum in Paris has a collection of 72,000 Autochrome photographs, the largest in the world.
The history of the invention and some pictures can be seen at http://www.institut-lumiere.org/english/frames_lum.html
 
Anyway, the café where the first movie screening took place was called the Salon Indien du Grand Café, located at 14 Boulevard Des Capucines in Paris.
On this same date, December 28, 1895, Wilhelm Rontgen published a paper on a new form of radiation (x-rays). It turns out he conducted experiments at the very same café.
 
Today, the site of the café is occupied by the Hotel Scribe, a 5* Sofitel property. One of its restaurants is called Le Lumiere:
http://www.sofitel.com/gb/hotel-0663-hotel-scribe-paris-managed-by-sofitel/index.shtml#./restaurant.shtml and you can see a picture of the Lumiere brothers over the fireplace.
 
Sort of related tidbits:
-- at 35 Boulevard des Capucines, in 1874, was the first impressionist exhibition, including work by Renoir, Manet, Pissarro, Degas, and Monet.
--- Monet painted two pictures called Boulevard Des Capucines; one is in Moscow, the other in Kansas City.
---Capucine is also the name of an actress; you will recognize her from The Pick Panther and What’s New Pussycat:

Monday, December 24, 2012

December 23: Dirty Rotten ...Row?

Today is the birthday of Heneage Finch, 1st Earl of Nottingham (1621).  He was Lord Chancellor and a member of Parliament. He became Baron Finch in 1673 and Earl of Nottingham in May 1681.

He built a house in (the village of) Kensington called the Nottingham House  It was acquired by King William III in 1689 because he wanted a residence near London but far away enough away from the smoke that covered London; the king was an asthmatic.  The king's official residence was St. James Palace in London.  Interestingly, it remains the official residence of the king/queen today even though no monarch has lived there for over 200 years.  In 1941, representatives of several countries met at the palace to sign the Declaration of St. James's Palace, which then became the charter of the United Nations.

Anyway, the house Finch built became Kensington Palace.  Christopher Wren made many enhancements to the house; he is responsible, among other things, for the architecture of St. Paul's Cathedral in London.  

A road was built from St. James Palace to Kensington Palace, and was called the "Route de Roi" or the road of kings.  Over time, the name evolved to "Rotten Row." I don't know how the name changed, but one hypothesis is that it comes from the Gaelic phrase Rat-an-righ, which translates as "Road Of The Kings" 

The road runs just south of Hyde Park, and still exists.  You can see a picture of it at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Rotten_Row_-_Hyde_Park.jpg  The Household Cavalry exercises its horses on Rotten Row.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

December 22: Oh what a night, late December...


Not what you are thinking, it was late December back in 1808, in Vienna. It was the date of a great concert, featuring the debut of Beethoven’s 5th and 6th symphonies, his 4th piano concerto, and the Choral Fantasy. Beethoven conducted and played the piano. 

 The debut was held at the Theater An Der Wien in Vienna, one of the nicest concert halls I have been to. My wife and I went there after we were first married, and saw a performance of the Merry Widow, by Franz Lehar. That operetta also had its debut at this theater, in 1905. In fact, they are performing it again next week.

The Theater An Der Wien has an interesting history, besides hosting the debut performance of great compositions. It was built by Emanuel Schikaneder, who wrote the libretto to the Magic Flute (Mozart), and sang the role of Papageno in the premiere. The theater has a statue of him in that role over one of its doors; he died in poverty in 1812.

In November of this year, a concert was held at the theater featuring one of Mozart’s favorite pianos; this piano returned to Vienna after 200 years. It had been donated to a museum in Salzburg soon after his death, and is now on display at Mozart’s house/museum. You can see a picture of it at http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1192179!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_635/mozart26n-2-web.jpg

December 21: Wynne'ng words


On December 21, 1913, the first crossword puzzle was published. It was created by Arthur Wynne, a journalist born in Liverpool, who emigrated to the USA in 1891. He first worked for the Pittsburgh Press, and also was a violinist with the Pittsburgh Symphony. He later moved to New York, and the first puzzle was published in the New York World’s “fun” section. It was called a word-cross. The story goes that a typesetting error reversed the words and dropped the hyphen a few weeks later, and the crossword puzzle was born.

The first collection of crossword puzzles was published as a book in 1924. It was the first publication of two young men called Simon and Schuster. Simon’s aunt wanted to buy a book of crosswords for her daughter; Simon decided to publish one. They paid the newspaper $25 for each puzzle. The book was a spectacular success; they sold more than 300,000 books in the first year. Each book came with a pencil attached to it. Today, the company is owned by CBS and is one of the largest book publishers in the world.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

September 20: Not quite around the world

On this day in 1519, Ferdinand Magellan set sail from Sanlúcar de
Barrameda in Spain to circumnavigate the globe. This has an
interesting background. In the late 1400's, it was known that the
Americas were a separate continent, and not part of Asia. The problem
for Spain was how to get to the Spice Islands ( the Moluccas, in
Indonesia today). They could not go round the Africa: a treaty signed
in 1494 gave the Portugese the sole right to this eastern route. So
they needed a western route.

Magellan proposed finding this route to Charles I of Spain, and the
project was approved because if successful, they would have a route
without having to go to war with the Portugese.

Five ships sailed on September 20, 1519. Ships from Portugal followed
them, but he got past them. When the arrived in South America, they
could not land in Brazil, it was Portugese territory. They landed
instead in Argentina (near Rio), there was a mutiny but Magellan
prevailed. Then they started to sail south, looking for a way around.
They found what we now call the Magellan Straits, sailed into the
Pacific (which was named by Magellan: Mar Pacifico because it was
peaceful), and they were the first cross the Pacific.

Magellan did not make it back: he was killed in the Battle of Mactan
in the Phillipines in 1521. Two of the ships continued the journey,
made it to the Spice Islands. They continued westward, around Africa,
almost died, and one ship, captained by Juan Sebastián Elcano, finally
returned to Sanlúcar de Barrameda. Elcano and his surviving crew were
the first to circumnavigate the globe.

December 11: If Not For Max

The physicist Max Born was born on December 11, 1882. He was one of the pioneering developers of quantum mechanics. He won the Nobel prize in 1954. Some of his most productive years were at the University of Gottingen, in Germany. He had to leave Germany in 1933, and went to the UK, first to Cambridge and then to Edinburgh, but returned after retiring in 1953. He is buried in Gottingen. His tombstone has on it his fundamental equation or matrix mechanics, you can see a picture here: http://www.origin-life.gr.jp/3004/3004229/126.jpg
The singer/actress Olivia Newton-John is his granddaughter. Max’s daughter, Irene, married Brinley Newton-John, who worked for British intelligence during WWII, and then moved to Australia in the 1950’s to teach at the University of Melbourne’s Ormond College.
Her first solo album was titled “If Not For You,” released in 1971. The title song was written by Bob Dylan and previously recorded by George Harrison, and was her first international hit. You can watch/hear it at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jwTYhnQgJjA. There is also a version by Dylan/Harrison at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tctzUNMp5po

Monday, December 10, 2012

December 10: More Music Died

December 10 marks the anniversary of the death of Otis Redding in 1967. He was 26. The plane he was traveling in crashed outside Madison, Wisconsin, in bad weather. He died three days after recording the song “Sitting on the Dock of the Bay.” The song was released in January 1968, and was his only number 1 single on the Billboard 100. It was actually the first posthumous number one song in history. Interestingly, he intended to replace the whistling at the end of the song with a new verse, but never did. I wonder what he had in mind. You can hear it on YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzrXc68gNjQ
You can also hear his version of “Satisfaction,” the song by the Rolling Stones at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmSDExVBR94
The story goes that Otis did not know some words to the song and made them up. His version includes horns playing the main riff, which I understand was originally intended by Keith Richards.
There have been 7 posthumous #1 hits, including songs by Janis Joplin, Jim Croce, and John Lennon.
Other musicians who died in plane crashes in the rock and roll era include Buddy Holly, the Big Bopper, and Richie Valens, all on the same plane in 1959; and Jim Croce in 1973. The first event, of course, was known as the day the music died, as immortalized in Don McLeans ballad.

Saturday, December 8, 2012

December 8: Unspeakable Tragedy

On December 8, 1980, John Lennon died. On the Monday Night football game that day (Patriots vs. Dolphins), Howard Cosell announced it, calling it an “unspeakable tragedy.”
 
The Beatles had their origin in the Quarrymen, who were a skiffle/rock group Lennon formed in 1956. The name comes from the Quarry Banks School, which the members attended; Paul McCartney joined the band in 1957 and George Harrison in 1958. In 1997, there was a concert by the surviving members of the original Quarrymen, 40 years after their first performance in 1957, the performance at which John and Paul first met. Perhaps their first recording was Buddy Holly's "That'll Be The Day."The band is still around, you can find them at http://www.originalquarrymen.co.uk/index.html, and in fact, they are giving a concert tonight in Bristol. Ringo Starr never played for the Quarrymen, he joined the Beatles in 1962.
Skiffle is a mix of blues, folk, and jazz that uses improvised instruments, such as washboards and jugs. It became very popular in the UK in the 1950's, and one big skiffle star was Lonnie Donegan; his recording of "Rock Island Line," originally by Leadbelly, sold over a million copies.
If you want to hear some of the original Quarrymen recordings and the songs that influenced them, read on.
You can see/hear the Quarrymen’s first two recordings and more:
---In Spite of All The Danger http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuuOAA9ekbg
---“I’ll Follow the Sun” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjfKX4yyX0k
Leadbelly had a great version of the song “House of the Rising Sun,” later a huge hit for The Animals. You can hear it at
His original version of Rock Island Line is at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCiJ4QQG9WQ while the Donegal version is at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXQgG98VSOs I love this version, by George Harrison and Paul Simon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iotkCBxnzc from 1976.

Friday, December 7, 2012

December 7: Play it again, Tony

December 7, 1963 featured the first instant replay on TV, in the 4th quarter of the Army-Navy game played at Municipal Stadium in Philadelphia. It was invented by Tony Verna, a CBS sports director, who was 29 at the time. He figured out how to use a standard videotape recorder provide an instant replay. He wrote about it in a book, "Instant Replay: The Day That Changed Sports Forever." It completely changed the football viewing experience; you could see replays in the dead time between snaps. By having multiple cameras, you could be shown different angles and different parts of the field in the replay.
The first replay was of Army QB Rollie Stichweh running for a 1 yard TD. It was replayed at the original speed, and the announcer had to warn viewers that Army had not scored again, that this was a replay. It was the only replay shown in the game.
Roger Staubach was the Navy QB, and Navy won 21-15; Staubach also won the Heisman trophy that year. At the time of Stichweh's touchdown, Navy was ahead 21-7, with halfback Pat Donnely having scored 3 TD's. Stichweh followed the TD with a run in for 2-point conversion, and recovered the onside kick. Army then made it all the way to the 2 yard line when time ran out.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

December 6: Strong Bitter Beer

December 6 is the birthday of the French chemist Gay Lussac, who invented a way to measure the alcohol content of, among other things, beer, wine, and spirits.  What we call ABV (alcohol by volume) is also called "degrees Gay Lussac" after him, so in France, for example, you may see "6.8% GL" on a bottle.  It is the official measure of alcohol content in Europe. 

Another measure is "proof," which is twice ABV in the US.  In the UK, proof is different; 100 proof is about 57% ABV, while in the US, 100 proof is 50% ABV. 

The term "proof" has its origins in proving that there was the stated amount of alcohol in rum, which was used as a means of payment to sailors.  They found that if you mixed gunpowder with rum and set it on fire, it would not burn if it had less than 57.15% of alcohol, and this number became 100% proof that the rum was not watered down.

For beer, besides alcohol content, there is also a measure of bitterness, IBU for international bittering unit.  It measures the amount of a certain acid in the beer.  For benchmarking, a pale lager style beer may have 10 IBU, a pilsner 25 IBU, an IPA about 50 IBU.  Among the highest is barleywine, which may go up to 80 or 90 IBU.

By the way, Gay Lussac also discovered boron. You have probably used borax, a compound of boron, found in cleaning agents.  Borax has been around for thousands of years, boron was isolated by Gay Lussac and his colleagues in 1808.  He also coined the terms "burette" and "pipette" that you  used in high school chemistry.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

December 5: My name is Harley

December 5 marks the birthday of Robert Harley, Earl of Oxford.  He was almost the first Prime Minister of England, but not quite; the title is held by Walpole.  Harley was a "Chief Minister."

Anyway, an important part of London was developed by his son, Edward Harley.  Edward inherited Wimpole Hall though his wife.  He developed Harley Street, the center of medical specialists in London.

Wimpole Street, named after Wimpole Hall, was also developed by Harley junior.  It has an interesting history.  Arthur Conan Doyle (creator of Sherlock Holmes) was an opthalmologist and had his office on Wimpole Street.  In the early days of the Beatles, Paul McCartney lived at the home of  the parents of his girlfriend, Jane Asher, on Wimpole St. and apparently Paul and John Lennon wrote the lyrics to "I wanna to hold your hand" at this house, and McCartney also wrote the words to "Yesterday," easily one of the best songs written in my lifetime. 

A curious tidbit is that there was a toy store on Wimpole Street, called the Abbatt toy store.  It was designed by an architect called Erno Goldfinger.  The Bond character in the film of that name was named after Erno, who knew Ian Fleming.  Apparently, Goldfinger thought about suing Fleming on the use of the name, but relented after Fleming threatened to rename the character Goldprick (and Fleming paid the lawyers fees).
 

Friday, November 30, 2012

November 30: Water Rights

November 30 is the anniversary of the Treat of Paris, signed in 1783. The treaty formally ended the American Revolutionary War. In the treaty, Great Britain recognized the United States as a sovereign nation and established its borders. You can see the document here
 
Article 8 of the treaty is interesting : it says “The navigation of the river Mississippi, from its source to the ocean, shall forever remain free and open to the subjects of Great Britain and the citizens of the United States."
 
Yes, you read that right: it gave perpetual access to the British subjects to the Mississippi river. At that time, the river was the western border of the US.
So you may ask: does that right still exist? After a lot of Google searching, I could find anything formally ending this right, but I doubt the right still exists.
This may be explained by the Treaty of Ghent (1814) that ended the War of 1812 between the US and Britain. Some argue that this treaty, by not re-affirming the provisions of the 1783 treaty, ended the right to navigation.
 
There are two interesting historical documents supporting this, from people who were there.
The first is a book about Henry Clay (one of the US negotiators in 1814). This book chapter seems to confirm that leaving out any mention of the navigation rights terminated those rights.
The second is John Quincy Adam’s Duplicate Letters. He was also one of the negotiators, and felt that the British had implicitly given up the right because the British position was that new treaty abrogated the old one, and since this right was omitted from the new treaty, it was gone.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

November 28: Emperor's Clothes?

November 28 is the anniversary of the first performance of Beethoven's 5th piano concerto. It made its debut in Leipzig, at the Gewandhaus, in 1811, and its Vienna debut took place in 1812.
Gewand means "garment" and the Gewandhaus was the guildhall of the Leipzig cloth merchants. The original building also housed the town's arsenal (good thing they didn't play Tchaikovsky's 1812 overture!) . A new concert hall, with the same name, was built in the 1780's, but was destroyed during the war. The third Gewandhaus was built in the 1970's. Besides the Beethoven concerto, the Gewandhasu also held the debut performances of Schubert's Symphony in C Major and Mendelssohn's violin concerto. Mozart's only appearance in Leipzig was at the Gewandhaus
Anyway, back to Beethoven. He had started going deaf in 1796 (age 26), and in 1811, at age 41, he tried and failed to play the concerto. He never performed in public again. By 1814, he was almost totally deaf. What is stunning is that he continued to write music, including the 9th symphony (1824, three years before his death). The story goes that after he finished conducting it at its premier, he had to be turned around to "see" the audience applauding.
The 5th piano concerto is known as the "Emperor" (referring to Napoleon).  Beethoven dedicated it to Archduke Rudolph. It was named the Emperor concerto by a fellow composer and music publisher Johann Cramer. It could be that the name was given because its debut in Vienna was as part of an event celebrating Napoleon's birthday. Beethoven had previously admired Napoleon and originally named his 3rd symphony after him. But after he found out that Napoleon had crowned himself Emperor, he changed the name of the 3rd symphony. Beethoven had to hide in his brother's cellar during the bombardment of Vienna by Napoleon's forces in 1809. This may have delayed the completion of the 5th piano concerto.
There are, of course many, recordings of this concerto. One that I really like is by the great Italian pianist Arturo Beneditti Michelangeli. You can see and hear it at
An old black and white single-file version, is at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7lcNGAMpGs about 37 minutes long.