I have been reading articles about seeding in tennis and how they are meant to protect top seeds so they can meet in the later rounds, and keep tournaments interesting for fans. It made me wonder: how frequently do outcomes reflect the seeding in a tournament? A first pass at answering this is the subject of this post: how frequently do top seeds win tournaments?
We have a remarkable database available to answer such question due to Jeff Sackman. Using this data, I analyzed ATP matches between 2000 and 2023. First, the raw results.
| Tournaments | Losses of #1S | L in R128 | L in R64 | L in R32 | L in R16 | L in QF | L in SF | L in F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Matches | 1521 | 1106 | 2 | 17 | 170 | 269 | 262 | 219 | 167 |
| A level | 1218 | 899 | 0 | 141 | 232 | 225 | 182 | 119 | |
| Masters | 208 | 150 | 0 | 13 | 26 | 29 | 26 | 23 | 33 |
| Slams | 95 | 57 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 15 |
| Tournaments | Losses of S1 | R128 | R64 | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | F | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 1521 | 73% | 0.18% | 1.54% | 15.37% | 24.32% | 23.69% | 19.80% | 15.10% |
| A level | 1218 | 74% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 15.68% | 25.81% | 25.03% | 20.24% | 13.24% |
| Masters | 208 | 72% | 0.00% | 8.67% | 17.33% | 19.33% | 17.33% | 15.33% | 22.00% |
| Slams | 95 | 60% | 3.51% | 7.02% | 5.26% | 14.04% | 19.30% | 24.56% | 26.32% |
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